Within 1995 Review
Why One Expert Still Said Not Proven
Hyman did not deny unusual results, but he argued that replication, theory, and bias controls were still too weak for the strongest claim.
On this page
- What Hyman accepted about the later experiments
- Why unexplained results were not proof for him
- How replication became the unresolved scientific test
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Introduction
The central disagreement in the 1995 evaluation of the U.S. government’s remote-viewing research was not whether some experiments produced unusual statistical results. Ray Hyman accepted that several of the later studies appeared methodologically stronger than much earlier parapsychology research and that the reported effects were not easily dismissed as simple statistical accidents. His objection was narrower but more fundamental: the evidence had not yet crossed the scientific threshold required to claim that a genuine paranormal phenomenon had been demonstrated. For Hyman, that threshold depended above all on independent replication. Until separate researchers, working without ties to the original programme, could reliably reproduce the findings under equally rigorous conditions, he argued that the evidence remained intriguing rather than conclusive.[CIA]cia.govAN EVALUATION OF THE REMOTE VIEWING PROGRAMUtts and Hyman were asked to prepare independent reports based on their review. In this rev…
What Hyman Accepted About the Later Experiments
One common misunderstanding is that Hyman rejected the remote-viewing experiments outright. His own report says the opposite.
Reviewing the final series of studies conducted at Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), Hyman acknowledged that they appeared largely free from many of the obvious methodological flaws that had plagued earlier psychic research. He also agreed that the reported statistical effect sizes were sufficiently large and consistent that they deserved serious scientific attention rather than casual dismissal.[PhilPapers]philpapers.orgEvaluation of Program on Anomalous Mental Phenomena.by R Hyman · Cited by 73 — Ray Hyman Abstract Professor Jessica Utts and I…
This concession is important because it narrowed the dispute between Hyman and statistician Jessica Utts. By 1995 they broadly agreed that:
- the earliest remote-viewing research had substantial methodological weaknesses;[cia.gov]cia.govAN EVALUATION OF REMOTE VIEWINGRaymond Hyman, a Professor of. Psychology at the University of Oregon. In addition to their extensive cred…
- later experiments introduced better blinding and tighter protocols;
- the statistical outcomes appeared stronger than chance expectations alone would predict.
Their disagreement was therefore not primarily about the numerical results. It concerned what those results justified scientists concluding.[CIA]cia.govAN EVALUATION OF THE REMOTE VIEWING PROGRAMUtts and Hyman were asked to prepare independent reports based on their review. In this rev…
Why Unexplained Results Were Not Proof for Him
Hyman argued that a statistically significant anomaly is not automatically evidence for psychic functioning.
In most areas of science, an unexpected result first raises a question rather than settles one. A finding may reflect an unknown phenomenon, but it may also arise from unnoticed bias, subtle methodological artefacts, selective reporting or analytical choices that become visible only when other laboratories repeat the work.
That distinction mattered especially in remote viewing because there was no accepted scientific theory explaining how information could be obtained without recognised sensory channels. Without such a theory, Hyman believed researchers had fewer tools for identifying hidden sources of error. The burden therefore shifted even more heavily towards repeated independent confirmation.[PhilPapers]philpapers.orgEvaluation of Program on Anomalous Mental Phenomena.by R Hyman · Cited by 73 — Ray Hyman Abstract Professor Jessica Utts and I…
For Hyman, extraordinary claims required more than unexplained statistics. They required evidence that remained stable after different investigators attempted to reproduce it under conditions where unconscious experimenter influence, procedural quirks and subjective interpretation were minimised.
How Replication Became the Unresolved Scientific Test
Independent replication occupies a special place in science because it tests whether an effect depends on the original investigators.
Hyman argued that most of the strongest remote-viewing evidence came from a relatively small network of researchers connected with the same long-running programme. Even though later experiments were better designed, they had not yet accumulated the broad, independent confirmation expected before overturning established scientific understanding.[PhilPapers]philpapers.orgEvaluation of Program on Anomalous Mental Phenomena.by R Hyman · Cited by 73 — Ray Hyman Abstract Professor Jessica Utts and I…
His concern involved several related questions:
- Would different laboratories obtain comparable results? An effect limited to one research group is inherently more difficult to interpret.
- Would independent analysts reach the same statistical conclusions? Replication includes reproducing both the experimental outcome and its interpretation.
- Would the effect survive procedural variation? Genuine natural phenomena normally remain detectable across reasonable changes in personnel and setting.
Until these questions were answered, Hyman regarded the evidence as incomplete rather than disproved.
Replication Meant More Than Repeating the Same Protocol
Hyman’s use of the word “replication” was broader than simply rerunning an experiment.
True independent replication meant that researchers with no investment in the original programme should be able to reproduce comparable results using transparent methods that could withstand critical scrutiny. This reduces the possibility that success depends on tacit laboratory practices, unconscious cueing, statistical flexibility or unique features of one research team.
He therefore distinguished between:
- Internal consistency, where the same programme repeatedly reports positive findings; and
- Independent confirmation, where outside investigators achieve comparable results without relying on the original researchers.
Only the second, in Hyman’s view, could substantially strengthen the case for a genuine anomaly.[PhilPapers]philpapers.orgEvaluation of Program on Anomalous Mental Phenomena.by R Hyman · Cited by 73 — Ray Hyman Abstract Professor Jessica Utts and I…
Why Theory Also Mattered
Replication was closely connected to another concern in Hyman’s review: the absence of a convincing explanatory framework.
Scientific theories do more than explain existing observations. They also generate predictions about when an effect should appear, when it should disappear and what variables should influence it. Because remote viewing lacked such a framework, Hyman argued that researchers could not confidently distinguish genuine signals from methodological artefacts.
Without theoretical guidance, repeated successful experiments become harder to interpret. Researchers may know that something unusual has occurred, yet remain uncertain whether they have isolated a new phenomenon or an unnoticed feature of the experimental design.
This is why Hyman repeatedly linked replication and theory rather than treating them as separate objections.[PhilPapers]philpapers.orgEvaluation of Program on Anomalous Mental Phenomena.by R Hyman · Cited by 73 — Ray Hyman Abstract Professor Jessica Utts and I…
Why This Became the Key Scientific Disagreement
Jessica Utts interpreted the existing statistical evidence as already sufficient to establish that some form of anomalous information transfer existed, even if its mechanism remained unknown. Hyman considered that conclusion premature.
The difference reflected two standards of inference rather than a dispute over arithmetic. Utts argued that the accumulated statistics exceeded what many other scientific disciplines would regard as persuasive. Hyman argued that claims challenging fundamental assumptions about perception required a stronger evidential foundation—especially independent replication by researchers outside the original programme.[CIA]cia.govAN EVALUATION OF THE REMOTE VIEWING PROGRAMUtts and Hyman were asked to prepare independent reports based on their review. In this rev…
That disagreement became the defining scientific issue in the 1995 review. Hyman did not claim the later experiments showed nothing unusual. Instead, he argued that unusual results alone could not establish psychic functioning until they had survived the discipline’s most important credibility test: reliable, independent replication.[CIA]cia.govAN EVALUATION OF THE REMOTE VIEWING PROGRAMUtts and Hyman were asked to prepare independent reports based on their review. In this rev…
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Endnotes
1.
Source: cia.gov
Link:https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP96-00791R000200180005-5.pdf
Source snippet
AN EVALUATION OF THE REMOTE VIEWING PROGRAMUtts and Hyman were asked to prepare independent reports based on their review. In this rev...
2.
Source: philpapers.org
Link:https://philpapers.org/rec/HYMEOP
Source snippet
Evaluation of Program on Anomalous Mental Phenomena.by R Hyman · Cited by 73 — Ray Hyman Abstract Professor Jessica Utts and I...
3.
Source: cia.gov
Link:https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP96-00791R000200180006-4.pdf
Source snippet
AN EVALUATION OF REMOTE VIEWINGRaymond Hyman, a Professor of. Psychology at the University of Oregon. In addition to their extensive cred...
4.
Source: youtube.com
Title: Statistics in Parapsychology with Jessica Utts
Link:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WmYGtKB9EEA
Source snippet
Ray Hyman - The Life of an Expert Skeptic, Part 1...
5.
Source: youtube.com
Title: Ray Hyman
Link:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8VAOzcXGc4
Source snippet
The Life of an Expert Skeptic, Part 2...
6.
Source: youtube.com
Title: Ray Hyman
Link:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2olEw13NxUs
Source snippet
[Stargate]({{ 'stargate/' | relative_url }}) Project: How Did the CIA Turn the Human Mind into a Weapon?...
7.
Source: Wikipedia
Title: Ray Hyman
Link:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Hyman
8.
Source: Wikipedia
Title: Remote viewing
Link:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Remote_viewing
Source snippet
Remote viewingThe program ran from 1975 to 1995 and ended after evaluators concluded that remote viewers consistently failed to produc...
9.
Source: skepdic.com
Title: remote viewing
Link:https://skepdic.com/remotevw.html
Source snippet
Utts claimed there was good statistical evidence to support...Read more...
10.
Source: psi-encyclopedia.spr.ac.uk
Title: spr.ac.uk Remote Viewing
Link:https://psi-encyclopedia.spr.ac.uk/articles/remote-viewing/
Source snippet
Viewing - Psi EncyclopediaJan 13, 2017 — Hyman and Utts were each asked by AIR to produce an independent report by a fixed date. Utts com...
Additional References
11.
Source: reddit.com
Link:https://www.reddit.com/r/remoteviewing/comments/1dazs09/creation_of_study_on_statistical_evidence_of/
Source snippet
Creation of study on statistical evidence of remote viewingThe studies analyzed here all followed a stringent [protocol]({{ 'protocol/' | relative_url }}) established by Ray...
12.
Source: researchgate.net
Link:https://www.researchgate.net/publication/403178755_The_Star_Gate_Archives_Reports_of_the_United_States_Government_Sponsored_Psi_Program_1972-1995_Volume_4_Operational_Remote_Viewing_Memorandums_and_Reports
Source snippet
1995. Ray Hyman. Jessica Utts and I were commissioned to evaluate the research on remote viewing and related phenomena which was...Read...
13.
Source: bazaarmodel.net
Link:https://bazaarmodel.net/Onderwerpen/remoteviewingCIA/CIA-InitiatedRV.html
Source snippet
CIA-Initiated Remote Viewing At Stanford Research Instituteby HE Puthoff · Cited by 2 — Abstract - In July 1995 the CIA declassified, and...
Published: July 1995
14.
Source: bibliotecapleyades.net
Link:https://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/vision_remota/esp_visionremota_10.htm
Source snippet
The AIR report concludes that although statistically significant effects have been observed...Read more...
15.
Source: researchgate.net
Title: An Assessment of the Evidence for Psychic Functioning
Link:https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333228024_An_Assessment_of_the_Evidence_for_Psychic_Functioning
Source snippet
Besides the ganzfield, the most prominent psi protocol is "remote viewing." As described by Utts (2019) -in a 1995 report for the US Cong...
16.
Source: alice.id.tue.nl
Link:https://www.alice.id.tue.nl/references/mumford-rose-goslin-1995.pdf
Source snippet
Evaluation of Remote Viewing: Research and...by MD Mumford · 1995 · Cited by 75 — Utts and Hyman were asked to prepare independent repor...
17.
Source: reddit.com
Link:https://www.reddit.com/r/remoteviewing/comments/1501do7/the_complete_skeptics_guide_to_remote_viewing_how/
Source snippet
cation, some of the experiments were conducted in secret...Read more...
18.
Source: deanradin.blogspot.com
Title: Skeptic agrees that remote viewing is proven
Link:https://deanradin.blogspot.com/2009/09/skeptic-agrees-that-remote-viewing-is.html
Source snippet
Entangled MindsSep 14, 2009 — Professor Jessica Utts, a statistician from the University of California, discovered that remote viewers we...
19.
Source: researchgate.net
Link:https://www.researchgate.net/publication/267978941Evaluation_of_Program_on%27Anomalous_Mental_Phenomena%27
Source snippet
g and related phenomena which was carried out at Stanford Re-search...
20.
Source: cdn.centerforinquiry.org
Link:https://cdn.centerforinquiry.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/29/1996/03/22165045/p21.pdf
Source snippet
Center for InquiryEvaluation of the Military's Twenty-Year Program on...by RAY HYMAN · 1996 · Cited by 8 — Ray Hyman is a cognitive psyc...
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