Within Future Targets
Why Winning Streaks Can Mislead
Runs of apparent hits can look persuasive when misses, stopping rules, and failed forecasts are not handled openly.
On this page
- How optional stopping inflates apparent success
- Why misses disappear from public memory
- What transparent prediction records should include
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Introduction
Claims that a person accurately described a future target can appear compelling when presented as a string of successful predictions. However, the strength of such evidence depends not only on the apparent hits but also on how unsuccessful predictions were handled. In debates over future-target remote viewing and precognition, two recurring concerns are optional stopping and selective memory. Together, these mechanisms can make ordinary statistical variation appear more impressive than it really is, even without deliberate fraud.
This matters because future-target claims often involve many individual sessions, ambiguous descriptions, and long-running projects. If researchers, practitioners, or audiences mainly remember striking successes while overlooking failed attempts or changing stopping rules, the resulting impression of accuracy can become substantially inflated. For that reason, both critics and many researchers interested in psi phenomena increasingly argue that transparent record-keeping and pre-specified procedures are essential for evaluating precognition claims.[slub-dresden.de+2Academia]slub-dresden.dePreregistration and Registered ReportsSeptember 16, 2022 — by K Zinke · 2022 — File Drawer, p-Hacking, HARKing, multiverse • Rate of positive results dropped from 57% to 8% wi…
How optional stopping inflates apparent success
Optional stopping occurs when data collection or analysis is influenced by the results already observed rather than by a plan established beforehand. In practice, this can take several forms:
- Continuing trials until a statistically favourable result appears.
- Ending a series early after a run of apparent successes.
- Trying multiple analyses and reporting only the one producing the strongest outcome.
- Repeating prediction attempts until one appears especially convincing.
Each of these practices increases the likelihood of obtaining an apparently unusual result simply through chance. A sequence that seems highly unlikely after it has occurred may have been one among many opportunities for a positive-looking outcome.
In future-target remote viewing, the risk is especially important because individual sessions are often interpreted after feedback is received. If the number of sessions, judging procedures, or statistical analyses changes during the project, reported success rates may no longer reflect the probability that would have existed under a fixed experimental design. This concern has been raised repeatedly in discussions of parapsychology and has become one reason why preregistration is increasingly recommended for controversial research.[slub-dresden.de+2arXiv]slub-dresden.dePreregistration and Registered ReportsSeptember 16, 2022 — by K Zinke · 2022 — File Drawer, p-Hacking, HARKing, multiverse • Rate of positive results dropped from 57% to 8% wi…
Importantly, optional stopping is not unique to parapsychology. It is recognised throughout scientific research as one of several “researcher degrees of freedom” that can increase false-positive findings if not disclosed. The same statistical principles apply whether the topic is medicine, psychology, or alleged precognition.[slub-dresden.de+2arXiv]slub-dresden.dePreregistration and Registered ReportsSeptember 16, 2022 — by K Zinke · 2022 — File Drawer, p-Hacking, HARKing, multiverse • Rate of positive results dropped from 57% to 8% wi…
A concrete illustration appears even within remote-viewing literature itself. One published study discussing remote viewing under different experimental conditions acknowledged that participant attrition could resemble an optional stopping problem if poorer performers discontinued after receiving discouraging feedback, thereby leaving a stronger-looking subset of results. The authors treated this as a methodological caveat rather than proof that the effect occurred, illustrating how such risks can arise even without intentional manipulation.[Academia]academia.edusion basis they may have dropped out when performing poorly,Remote Viewing of Concealed Target Pictures Under Light…January 1, 2019 — This may also suggest an optional stopping image cor…
Why misses disappear from public memory
Selective memory operates differently from optional stopping but can produce a similarly misleading impression.
Future predictions naturally generate many more failures than memorable successes. Successful forecasts are surprising, emotionally engaging, and frequently retold. Misses usually receive little attention, are forgotten, or are reinterpreted as having referred to some different event.
In remote-viewing communities, this tendency is amplified because descriptions are often broad enough to permit several possible interpretations after the target becomes known. A striking correspondence may become widely circulated, while numerous ordinary or incorrect sessions remain largely invisible. Over time, observers may sincerely remember an impressive history of successes despite the complete record being much less remarkable.
Psychological research has long shown that unusual, emotionally significant, or expectation-confirming events are remembered more readily than routine failures. Belief systems can therefore become reinforced even without conscious dishonesty, simply because memorable “hits” receive disproportionate attention while misses fade from recall.[PMC]pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.govby KH Greenaway · 2013 · Cited by 113 — We argue that believing the future is predictable increases one's own perceived ability to exe…
This selective recall also affects public discussion. Articles, documentaries, podcasts, and online conversations frequently highlight dramatic individual cases because they are inherently more interesting than unsuccessful prediction attempts. As a result, readers encounter a filtered sample rather than the full distribution of outcomes.
Why anecdotal winning streaks deserve caution
Humans are naturally drawn to streaks. Five apparently accurate predictions in succession feel more persuasive than an abstract discussion of statistical probability.
Yet apparent streaks can arise through several ordinary mechanisms:
- Numerous prediction attempts made before only the successful ones are publicised.
- Flexible definitions of what counts as a successful match.
- Multiple viewers making predictions simultaneously, increasing the chance that someone appears unusually accurate.
- Long-running projects where memorable successes accumulate while failures gradually disappear from collective memory.
For this reason, isolated examples—even striking ones—provide limited evidence about whether a predictive method genuinely performs above chance. What matters scientifically is the performance of the complete prediction record under predetermined evaluation criteria.
This distinction explains why critics often request access to every session rather than only published highlights, while proponents seeking broader acceptance increasingly advocate more rigorous prospective testing.[Wikipedia+2Academia]WikipediaOpen source on wikipedia.org.
What transparent prediction records should include
The most effective safeguard against optional stopping and selective memory is comprehensive prospective documentation. A transparent prediction archive should normally record:
- The date and time each prediction was made.
- The exact wording, sketches, or transcripts before any feedback.
- When and how the future target was selected.
- The complete list of successful and unsuccessful predictions.
- Predetermined stopping rules specifying the planned number of trials.
- Predefined judging criteria established before targets are revealed.
- Any deviations from the original protocol, clearly documented rather than hidden.
Preregistration extends this principle by creating a time-stamped public record of hypotheses, sampling plans, statistical analyses, and stopping rules before data collection begins. This separates confirmatory tests from later exploratory analyses and makes it easier for readers to assess whether reported findings resulted from planned procedures or from choices made after viewing the data.[slub-dresden.de+2arXiv]slub-dresden.dePreregistration and Registered ReportsSeptember 16, 2022 — by K Zinke · 2022 — File Drawer, p-Hacking, HARKing, multiverse • Rate of positive results dropped from 57% to 8% wi…
Some contemporary precognition researchers have adopted formal study registries that explicitly record planned stopping rules or even track an “optional stopping ratio” as part of the study design, reflecting growing recognition that these methodological issues require direct attention rather than informal assurances.[Koestler Parapsychology Unit]koestler-parapsychology.psy.ed.ac.ukKPU Registry 1094Koestler Parapsychology UnitStudy Registration for the KPU Study Registry15 Apr 2025 — Optional Stopping Ratio: number of trials from run…
Why governance matters more than memorable successes
Within future-target remote-viewing research, the central governance question is not whether an individual prediction appears impressive but whether the evaluation process makes selective success impossible.
A protocol that fixes target selection, trial numbers, judging methods, and reporting requirements before predictions are made provides much stronger evidence than one assembled retrospectively around memorable cases. Likewise, maintaining a complete public record of both hits and misses reduces the influence of selective memory and allows independent observers to calculate actual success rates.
For that reason, debates over future-target precognition increasingly focus less on isolated dramatic predictions and more on transparency, preregistration, comprehensive reporting, and independent replication. These practices cannot determine whether precognition exists, but they do reduce the possibility that apparent winning streaks arise primarily from optional stopping, selective reporting, or the natural tendency to remember remarkable successes more vividly than ordinary failures.[slub-dresden.de+2Academia]slub-dresden.dePreregistration and Registered ReportsSeptember 16, 2022 — by K Zinke · 2022 — File Drawer, p-Hacking, HARKing, multiverse • Rate of positive results dropped from 57% to 8% wi…
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Endnotes
1.
Source: slub-dresden.de
Title: Preregistration and Registered Reports
Link:https://www.slub-dresden.de/fileadmin/groups/slubsite/Open_Science/Preregistration_Zinke_LiOS_2022.pdf
Source snippet
September 16, 2022 — by K Zinke · 2022 — File Drawer, p-Hacking, HARKing, multiverse • Rate of positive results dropped from 57% to 8% wi...
Published: September 16, 2022
2.
Source: academia.edu
Link:https://www.academia.edu/36395925/Precognition_as_a_Form_of_Prospection_A_Review_of_the_Evidence
Source snippet
Academia(PDF) Precognition as a Form of Prospection: A Review of...Preregistration and replication are essential for validating precogni...
3.
Source: Wikipedia
Link:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parapsychology
4.
Source: arxiv.org
Title: arXiv Does preregistration improve the credibility of research findings?
Link:https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.10513
5.
Source: arxiv.org
Title: arXiv Why optional stopping can be a problem for Bayesians
Link:https://arxiv.org/abs/1708.08278
6.
Source: academia.edu
Title: sion basis they may have dropped out when performing poorly,
Link:https://www.academia.edu/38286031/Remote_Viewing_of_Concealed_Target_Pictures_Under_Light_and_Dark_Conditions
Source snippet
Remote Viewing of Concealed Target Pictures Under Light...January 1, 2019 — This may also suggest an optional stopping image cor...
Published: January 1, 2019
7.
Source: pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Link:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3737190/
Source snippet
by KH Greenaway · 2013 · Cited by 113 — We argue that believing the future is predictable increases one's own perceived ability to exe...
8.
Source: Wikipedia
Title: Remote viewing
Link:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Remote_viewing
Source snippet
Remote viewingRemote viewing (RV) is the practice of seeking impressions about a distant or unseen subject, purportedly sensing with t...
9.
Source: koestler-parapsychology.psy.ed.ac.uk
Title: KPU Registry 1094
Link:https://www.koestler-parapsychology.psy.ed.ac.uk/Documents/KPU_Registry_1094.pdf
Source snippet
Koestler Parapsychology UnitStudy Registration for the KPU Study Registry15 Apr 2025 — Optional Stopping Ratio: number of trials from run...
Additional References
10.
Source: researchgate.net
Link:https://www.researchgate.net/publication/324373873_Precognition_as_a_form_of_prospection_A_review_of_the_evidence
Source snippet
Precognition as a Form of Prospection: A Review of the...Prospection, the act of attempting to foresee one's future, is generally assume...
11.
Source: scispace.com
Link:https://scispace.com/pdf/remote-viewing-of-concealed-target-pictures-under-light-and-229j8c3s0e.pdf
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may also suggest an optional stopping problem, as participants were prov...
12.
Source: researchgate.net
Link:https://www.researchgate.net/publication/248497861_Remote_viewing_as_applied_to_futures_studies
13.
Source: thenonphysicalfuture.medium.com
Title: remote viewing the subjective experience c5fa6afb6486
Link:https://thenonphysicalfuture.medium.com/remote-viewing-the-subjective-experience-c5fa6afb6486
Source snippet
Viewing: the subjective experienceWell, the most important thing about RV is that it's intentional – the viewer is deliberately tasked to...
14.
Source: medium.com
Link:https://medium.com/predict/the-relevance-signal-julia-mossbridge-on-precognition-and-time-607751f858f3
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15.
Source: reddit.com
Link:https://www.reddit.com/r/remoteviewing/comments/qxarhv/how_accurate_is_remote_viewing_future_events/
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acurate due to multiple timelines. What is your opinion...
16.
Source: sfb1102.uni-saarland.de
Title: e Scholarship UC item 7w22b8gm
Link:https://sfb1102.uni-saarland.de/sfbunisb/uploads/2022/01/eScholarship-UC-item-7w22b8gm.pdf
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by K Haeuser · 2022 · Cited by 9 — We present two experiments that investigated whether false memories also occur under self-paced encodi...
17.
Source: youtube.com
Title: What doctors don’t know about the drugs they prescribe | Ben Goldacre
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Protocol for Finding Talent with Accurate Intuitive Abilities | Arnaud Delorme...
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Source: cia.gov
Link:https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP96-00789R002200210001-4.pdf
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19.
Source: youtube.com
Title: Build Alpha
Link:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBykUhFJQZc
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What doctors don't know about the drugs they prescribe | Ben Goldacre...
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